photo credit Marianne O’Leary
Fantasy sports have taken America by storm and as a result has grown to become a multi-million dollar industry. The challenge for fantasy gamers is predicting players that will yield year long success. The issue for armchair GMs is that a player’s success is often dependent upon the play of their teammates (a wide receiver is dependent upon the quarterback looking his way). This article will focus on fantasy football quarterbacks, runningbacks and receivers. I apologize for the lateness of this article, but I did not want my league mates to view my findings.
Let me first start by confessing I have only participated in fantasy football twice, 2012 and 2013. In 2012 I did not have a strategy and finished about midway up the table thanks to the exploits of Peyton Manning. In 2013 I decided to develop a strategy which was to own as many quality runningbacks as possible, and as a result I won my PPR league. I was the proud owner of Reggie Bush, Ryan Matthews, Knowshon Moreno, Doug Martin, and Andre Brown. It also helped that I had Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, DeSean Jackson, Josh Gordon, Julian Edleman, and Larry Fitzgerald. Looking back now this team appears to be incredibly stacked, however, this roster was chalk full of risk on draft night. Reggie Bush was on a new team, Ryan Matthews was constantly hurt, Knowshon Moreno was considered to be the backup to Montee Ball, no one knew Chip Kelly’s offense would be amazing, and Josh Gordon was/is currently suspended. The bottom line is that there is some element of luck and timing, which is what makes a prediction so difficult.
I would like to begin by stating that I cannot see the future and that this presentation is only one persons view. All data was collected from ESPN. No rookies were considered in this project to eliminate assumptions about the level of play from college to professional. I also only analyzed 50 runningbacks, 80 receivers (including tightends), and 24 quarterbacks.
Before I began this project I compared ESPN’s 2013 rankings with their 2014 rankings to see if there is any carryover in preseason rankings. It was not incredibly surprising that a players rank from the previous year was not always the same as the previous year. This would indicate that that the previous year’s data does not tell the full story. In fact, as the season begins and progresses you get a better idea of team philosophy and how a particular player is to be utilized. That being said, I only have last year’s data to make my predictions. All analysis was performed using the statistical program R.
To see my attributes and rankings…
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